My Oscar Predictions

83rd Annual Academy Awards, February 27th, 2011

Best Picture: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone

Actor in a Leading Role: Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco

Actress in a Leading Role: Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams

Directing: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit



I haven’t seen 127 Hours, The King’s Speech, Toy Story 3, Inception or The Kids Are Alright. I will talk a bit about why and if I think they’ll win anything. I’m certainly not a critic or a professional; and I’ll likely not watch the Oscars show. Awards shows are a waste of good DVR time.

Movie’s I’ve seen:

“Black Swan” This was a movie I wanted to see because I had a secret fantasy of being a ballerina when I was a young girl. The reality of not having any rhythm and being too tall quashed my dreams but I love the fluidity of ballet and have been known to watch them when I can.

I should have clearly done more research before watching the movie; although my instincts on trailers are usually pretty good so I didn’t (I usually don’t). This movie was disgusting and fascinating in ways that I’m not sure I completely understand. The demise of the star’s mental state was frightening and understandable but some of the ways the insanity was portrayed was to be frank, repulsive to me. A graphic masturbation scene, several parts of the movie had more blood and wounds than a horror movie and the most repellent to me was the overtly explicit lesbian oral sex scene. I turned my head away more than once in this film and repeatedly was glad I had seen it alone and on a free pass. Why did I stay? Because I wanted some redeeming part of this film to explain all the madness, and in that, the film did justice to the story. The finale was psychologically filled with visions and madness and beauty and dancing that explained yet mystified at the same time. And as expected it had a tragic, yet understandable ending.

My vote: I believe it could win Best Picture and possibly Directing but I think the Best Actress will go elsewhere.

“The Fighter” I love Mark Wahlberg and detest Christian Bale but wanted to see this movie. I like boxing movies and because it was based on a true story I thought it would be interesting. Briefly, this was really more a movie about overcoming the odds of a dysfunctional family that it was really about boxing. The main family in the film has so many problems and the story would like to have you believe it’s mostly because of economy and social class, but in my mind the family brought most of the problems on themselves. Micky Ward is the younger brother of a boxer that almost made it but instead turned his life to cocaine and eventually a prison sentence. Micky’s mother has been married several times and has two boys and several daughters in the family; she manages her boys’ fighting careers like she manages the family and the children are all adult enough to do it themselves. The daughters always seem to be around the house and it’s not clear if any of them have a job but spend a lot of time trash-talking Micky’s new girlfriend (Amy Adams) who works at the bar in town. Micky gets a shot to make it big and after his brother is sent to prison, he takes on a new manager (after dumping mom and pissing off the entire family except his step-father). He eventually wins the World Light Welter-weight title after reconciling with his brother (who appears to make some lifestyle changes) and family.

Strong acting by all the players; Christian Bale really shone as an entitled, selfish, coke-head and prison trash. Amy Adams was soft yet strong and Mark Wahlberg had the chance again to show of his incredible body and acting talents. However, all of this was overshadowed for me by the fact that there was just too much swearing and too many Jerry Springer moments for me.

My vote: I don’t think it will win anything big; although Melissa Leo may win a supporting actress award.

“True Grit” I had seen the original years ago and although I’ve never been much of a John Wayne fan, I liked the movie. I also really don’t like Jeff Bridges. I mostly went because Russ wanted to go and the kids were seeing a movie we “adults” had no desire to watch.

The movie was fantastic and true to the original with some updated material (I just recently re-watched the original on TV last week). Bridges was terrific as Cogburn and Matt Damon was perfectly cast as the Texas Ranger; Hailee Steinfeld absolutely perfect for the role of Mattee. Completely enjoyed the movie and even the part towards the end with the snakes (even though I turned my head) didn’t ruin it for me.

My vote: I think Hailee Steinfeld may take the supporting actress award for this movie. I’m not sure the movie will win anything else.



“The Social Network” I had absolutely no desire to see this film; I usually detest documentaries or anything that closely resembles a “not true but based on true events” story. But, a friend wanted to see it and I was game (Yeah, I can be bought for Milk Duds and Cherry Coke). I enjoyed it much more than I thought I would and have garnered a lot of respect for the founder (even if parts of the movie aren’t completely factual). Geeks of the world should rejoice that Mark Zuckerberg has flown their flag high and proud and made billions from it. And the rich snobs like the Winkelvii twins (Winkelvoss times two should be Winkelvii) deserved everything they got. They keep their names in the news by complaining that Zuckerberg should still have to pay them more. Side note, I think legal battles over “intellectual property” are dangerous grounds and should have higher standards than just plain theft of a product.

My Vote: I’d love to say “The Social Network” will win best picture, but I think it will get beat out by “The King’s Speech” or “The Kids Are All Right”.



I haven’t seen the other movies for a variety of reasons; I chose not to see “The Kids Are Alright” for the same reason I’ve never seen “Brokeback Mountain” and don’t watch “Modern Family”. Whether I’m a hateful bigot or not in anyone’s eyes; I have chosen not to see movies and shows that glorify the homosexual lifestyle and expect viewers to condone it as normal and right.

I ran out of time to be able to see “The Kings Speech” and “Toy Story 3” as well as “127 Hours”. I will watch them on DVD when they come out. I’m undecided if I want to watch “Inception” but not for any reason I can put a finger on.

I think “The King’s Speech” will likely take best picture, although the visual graphics in “Inception” may win out. I think Colin Firth will take Best Actor and Annette Bening Best Actress.